MIAC Preview
Photo Credit: John Healy
Women’s Championship
The No. 12 Carleton women have won seven of the last ten MIAC championships, including the last three. No. 23 St. Olaf hasn’t won a title since 2010, but only finished 24 points back of Carleton at the Blu-Gold Invite. In their last outing the two squads competed as far away as possible, racing on opposite coasts.
On paper, this race is Carleton’s to lose. Their impressive win at Lewis & Clark and the strong front-running of Clara Mayfield will be hard to top. A 100-second spread does raise concerns, but if the Knights place two runners in front of the Oles, like they did at the Blu-Gold meet, the team will be in good shape to retain their title.
The Oles strengthened their name in the national conversation with a 3rd place finish at Rowan. They debuted a new No. 1, first-year Sofia Carlson, who appears to be gaining comfort with the 6k distance as she improved by 48 seconds over the last three races. If the Oles tighten their pack in the same manner they did at Rowan, they’ll have a contentious shootout with the Knights.
The team battle for third will likely come down to the stronger fifth runner. The Gustavus Adolphus squad will need their fifth runner to emerge in order to balance the low-stick of St. Ben’s dynamo Fiona Smith. The Bennies had a much tighter 2-5 spread at the Blu-Gold meet than other outings, and the two teams have somehow avoided competing against each other all season. Time will tell if the out-of-region competition strategy favored by St. Ben’s or the close-to-home play by Gustavus will make the difference.
The Bethel women finished close to the Gustavus squad at a small meet in early October, and represented the North Region at Augustana where they finished only five points out of tenth place. With a young roster, this team will be one to watch in the future, but will likely be on the outside looking in this year.
The individual race will be a two-woman battle: Fiona Smith has emerged victorious in every matchup with Clara Mayfield, and the duo is expected to run away from the rest of the field. Expect Smith to become the third ever Saint Benedict individual champion. St. Scholastica freshman Maj-Lis Helmer will make her name known battling several Oles and Knights for the third-place individual finish, while the 800m speed and national championship experience of Hamline University’s Alexandra Maddux could also pay off with a top finish.
Men’s Championship
With the departure of the St. Thomas programs, the MIAC Team Championship appears to be a two-horse battle with several teams hoping to play the role of spoiler. On the men’s side, 16th ranked Carleton will not have to travel far to protect their win streak while cross-town rival, 26th ranked St. Olaf, hopes to defend their home course. This meet could have at-large bid consequences, as the Oles are ranked 5th in the North Region and a close score to Carleton will help their chances at a nationals appearance if they run well at the regional meet.
Even with the graduation of D3 all-time great Matt Wilkinson, MIAC schools have learned to never doubt the magic of a Dave Ricks who eschews coaching polos and team gear for multi-colored Hawaiian shirts in sub-zero temperatures and often sports mustaches reminiscence of a Wild West gunslinger. Despite not being ranked early in the season, the Carleton Knights have surged to a 16th place rank behind the duo of Ben Santos and Stephen Lavey. The gap from runners 4 to 5 (:34 at Lewis & Clark) is noticeable, but that margin has shrunk since the Blu-Gold Invite and the squad is strong enough to continue the streak and keep the trophy on their side of the Cannon River.
St. Olaf looks to counter with strong pack running and depth. Their program has seen three different No. 1 runners and seemingly rotates scorers. Ranked as high as 12th nationally early in the season, the Oles haven’t defeated Carleton at an MIAC Championship since 2016. Sophomores Ian Curtis and Will Kelly have teamed with senior Elliot Cassidy to churn out the most consistent performances. The trio led the Oles to an improved 32-second spread at Rowan. If 14:44/3:53 man Reuben Kosche runs big in the last race on his home course, the Oles may be able to make things interesting.
Gustavus Adolphus and St. John’s will clash in a tight race for third. Carleton easily handled St. John’s in Oregon, but No. 1 Lloyd Young stayed home to run a strong race at the Jim Drews Meet in Wisconsin. While adding Young back to the mix will help the Johnnies, Gustavus has beat them in every matchup this season. Low-stick Andrew Stumbo may prove the difference. Stumbo grew up less than 20 minutes from the Oles’ course, and I don’t think he’ll want to spend countless holidays driving by the Northfield exit stewing about the time he was edged by the Johnnies.
For the individual title, this is Andrew Stumbo’s race to lose. The super-senior didn’t come back for his final year of eligibility to finish anywhere other than on top of the winner’s podium. He’ll likely be the first non-Carleton athlete to win since 2016. Chasing Stumbo will be Stephen Lavey and Ben Santos. The pair has steadily improved throughout the season, and are the new “big two” at Carleton. Other individual contenders include Isahak Munir (Concordia-Moorehead), Ian Curtis (St. Olaf) and Calvin Boone (St. Scholastica). The darkest of dark horses is Jesse Middendorf (Concordia-Moorehead). If Middendorf figures out the 8K distance, everyone may be in trouble. Will the 800m All-American be able to pull out some magic?